Citation: Sandvik, H., and B. Pedersen (2023)
Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists
of species and ecosystems. Conservation Biology,
37, article e14105, 13 pp.
https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14105
Key words: Ecosystem collapse, expected loss of ecosystems,
expected loss of species, Red List Index, species extinction, threat factor
Abstract:
Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems.
Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or
ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information
can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to
biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species
into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared
3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric
calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that
is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value
from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction
probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the
contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within
50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics.
The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused
by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change.
Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given
threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the
remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across
countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information
but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more
intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with
stakeholders or the general public.
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